Democrats win Texas Senate in 2026?
66 %
+0.00% day
What traders on Polymarket pay for a contract that settles in full if a Democrat wins the 2026 US Senate race in Texas. The state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, so the seat tests how far the map can move.
Oct 7 · 66.00 % · +29.4% vs the window’s open
the numbers31
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 8 | 51.00 % | |
| Sep 9 | 51.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 10 | 51.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 11 | 51.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 12 | 52.00 % | +2.0% |
| Sep 13 | 52.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 14low | 50.00 % | −3.8% |
| Sep 15 | 53.00 % | +6.0% |
| Sep 16 | 56.00 % | +5.7% |
| Sep 17 | 56.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 18 | 57.00 % | +1.8% |
| Sep 19 | 60.00 % | +5.3% |
| Sep 20 | 60.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 21 | 60.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 22 | 63.00 % | +5.0% |
| Sep 23 | 62.00 % | −1.6% |
| Sep 24 | 63.00 % | +1.6% |
| Sep 25 | 61.00 % | −3.2% |
| Sep 26 | 62.00 % | +1.6% |
| Sep 27 | 61.00 % | −1.6% |
| Sep 28 | 61.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 29 | 61.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 30 | 62.00 % | +1.6% |
| Oct 1 | 65.00 % | +4.8% |
| Oct 2 | 62.00 % | −4.6% |
| Oct 3 | 61.00 % | −1.6% |
| Oct 4 | 65.00 % | +6.6% |
| Oct 5 | 64.00 % | −1.5% |
| Oct 6 | 65.00 % | +1.6% |
| Oct 7high | 66.00 % | +1.5% |
| Oct 7latest | 66.00 % | 0.0% |
Lately
The fortnight's news touched the venue, not the race. New York sued Polymarket as an illegal gambling operation that lets 18-to-20-year-olds bet where state law sets 21, and an appeals court ruled that states can regulate Kalshi's sports contracts. Neither accounts for what traders are paying on Texas.