Fed cuts rates after Oct 2026?
4 %
+0.00% day
A Polymarket contract on whether the US Federal Reserve lowers its policy rate after October 2026. The price is what traders are paying for that outcome, and it moves with every signal about inflation and the cost of borrowing.
Sep 4 · 4.00 % · −33.3% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 5 | 6.00 % | |
| Aug 6 | 5.00 % | −16.7% |
| Aug 7 | 6.00 % | +20.0% |
| Aug 8high | 7.00 % | +16.7% |
| Aug 9 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 10 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 11 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 12 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 13 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 14 | 5.00 % | −28.6% |
| Aug 15 | 4.00 % | −20.0% |
| Aug 16 | 4.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 17 | 5.00 % | +25.0% |
| Aug 18 | 4.00 % | −20.0% |
| Aug 19 | 4.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 20 | 4.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 21 | 4.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 22 | 4.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 23 | 5.00 % | +25.0% |
| Aug 24 | 4.00 % | −20.0% |
| Aug 25 | 4.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 26 | 4.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 27 | 4.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 28 | 4.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 29 | 4.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 30low | 3.00 % | −25.0% |
| Aug 31 | 4.00 % | +33.3% |
| Sep 1 | 3.00 % | −25.0% |
| Sep 2 | 3.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 3 | 4.00 % | +33.3% |
| Sep 4 | 4.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 4latest | 4.00 % | 0.0% |
Lately
Brent near $95–97 on the resumed Iran strikes inverted the question: markets moved from expecting a Fed cut to pricing a possible hike this month, and hike odds jumped to two-in-three. Warsh added that the Fed will have "work to do" if inflation doesn't fade — an oil shock is an inflation shock, and one policy rate cannot tell the two apart.