Fed hikes 25 bps after Jan 2027 meeting?
56 %
−7 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if the Federal Reserve raises its policy rate by a quarter point at its January 2027 meeting. Its price is what bettors will pay, in cents on the dollar, for that outcome.
Nov 13 · 56.00 % · +26.0 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers28
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 | 30.00 % | |
| Oct 15 | 41.00 % | +11.0 pts |
| Oct 16 | 36.00 % | −5.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 35.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 18 | 35.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 19 | 35.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 20 | 35.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 21 | 38.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 23 | 29.00 % | −9.00 pts |
| Oct 24 | 30.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 27 | 28.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 28 | 32.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Oct 30 | 27.00 % | −5.00 pts |
| Oct 31 | 26.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Nov 1 | 25.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Nov 2 | 25.00 % | 0 pts |
| Nov 3 | 26.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Nov 4 | 27.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Nov 5 | 21.00 % | −6.00 pts |
| Nov 6low | 18.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Nov 7 | 19.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Nov 8 | 19.00 % | 0 pts |
| Nov 9 | 19.00 % | 0 pts |
| Nov 10 | 18.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Nov 11 | 48.00 % | +30.0 pts |
| Nov 12 | 54.00 % | +6.00 pts |
| Nov 13high | 63.00 % | +9.00 pts |
| Nov 13latest | 56.00 % | −7.00 pts |
Lately
Core consumer prices rose 0.3% in October, and Fed officials answered in turn: Logan called for two more rate hikes, possibly rapidly, Daly said more were likely needed, and Williams called inflation 'far too high'. Two-year Treasury yields jumped 18 basis points as money moved onto hikes running past December into the new year.