Fed hikes 25 bps after Oct 2026 meeting?
18 %
+0.00% day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if the Federal Reserve raises its policy rate by a quarter point at its October 2026 meeting. The price is what traders will pay for that outcome, not a forecast.
Oct 4 · 18.00 % · −35.7% vs the window’s open
the numbers31
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5 | 28.00 % | |
| Sep 6 | 28.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 7 | 28.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 8 | 30.00 % | +7.1% |
| Sep 9 | 31.00 % | +3.3% |
| Sep 10 | 31.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 11 | 34.00 % | +9.7% |
| Sep 12 | 38.00 % | +11.8% |
| Sep 13 | 38.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 14 | 38.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 15 | 37.00 % | −2.6% |
| Sep 16 | 38.00 % | +2.7% |
| Sep 17 | 46.00 % | +21.1% |
| Sep 18 | 51.00 % | +10.9% |
| Sep 19 | 55.00 % | +7.8% |
| Sep 20 | 55.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 21 | 55.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 22 | 53.00 % | −3.6% |
| Sep 23 | 53.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 24 | 65.00 % | +22.6% |
| Sep 25 | 67.00 % | +3.1% |
| Sep 26 | 63.00 % | −6.0% |
| Sep 27 | 65.00 % | +3.2% |
| Sep 28 | 65.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 29high | 69.00 % | +6.2% |
| Sep 30 | 44.00 % | −36.2% |
| Oct 1 | 34.00 % | −22.7% |
| Oct 2 | 26.00 % | −23.5% |
| Oct 3low | 18.00 % | −30.8% |
| Oct 4 | 18.00 % | 0.0% |
| Oct 4latest | 18.00 % | 0.0% |
Lately
The Labor Department counted 29,000 new US jobs against 90,000 expected, a stall in hiring that took away the case for tightening at this meeting. Days earlier traders had priced in 4 Fed rate hikes by June 2027. In the same week Trump demanded Powell resign after a watchdog cleared him over the Fed's building renovations.