Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
19 %
−1 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if American forces invade Iran before 2027. Its price is what traders will pay for that outcome, and it reacts to troop moves, strikes and diplomacy between Washington and Tehran.
Oct 26 · 19.00 % · +3.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers29
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | 16.00 % | |
| Sep 28 | 16.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 29low | 14.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Sep 30 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 1 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 2 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 3 | 17.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 4 | 17.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 5 | 16.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 6 | 14.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 7 | 16.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 8 | 16.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 9 | 17.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 10 | 16.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 17.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 17.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 13 | 18.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 18.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 15 | 17.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 16 | 18.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 16.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 18 | 16.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 19 | 16.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 20 | 16.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 21 | 14.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 23 | 17.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 24 | 18.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 26high | 20.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 26latest | 19.00 % | −1.00 pts |
Lately
The Pentagon has drawn up options to renew strikes on Iran after the 3 November midterms, and Trump says the US may strike as soon as Sunday. Washington pulled nonessential staff from Saudi Arabia as Iran named data centres, cables and AI sites in 7 Gulf states as targets. Every reported plan is for strikes, not an invasion.