Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
87 %
−9 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if no deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is reached by its deadline. The strait carries much of the world's seaborne oil and Gulf gas, so its closure reaches fuel and fertilizer prices worldwide.
Oct 19 · 87.00 % · −1.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers7
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | 88.00 % | |
| Oct 13 | 89.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 89.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 16 | 96.00 % | +7.00 pts |
| Oct 17high | 97.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 19 | 96.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 19latest | 87.00 % | −9.00 pts |
Lately
A weekly record of 12 ships attacked near Hormuz came with an IRGC claim that a 2-million-barrel supertanker hit a mine. Then Araghchi, in Baghdad, offered to reopen the strait within six days, with talks with Washington resuming on the seventh if it accepts Iran's conditions, while Gulf states urged Lavrov to press Tehran.