Ukraine signs EU accession treaty by 2027?
9 %
+2 pts day
A Polymarket contract on whether Ukraine signs its EU accession treaty by 2027. Signing comes only after every negotiating chapter closes and all 27 member states agree, so the price is a bet on the pace of talks in Brussels.
Nov 4 · 9.00 % · +2.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers22
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 5low | 7.00 % | |
| Oct 6 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 7 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 8 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 10 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 11 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 12 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 13 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 14high | 28.00 % | +21.0 pts |
| Oct 16 | 19.00 % | −9.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 19.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 19 | 21.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 20 | 21.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 21 | 15.00 % | −6.00 pts |
| Oct 25 | 11.00 % | −4.00 pts |
| Oct 28 | 13.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 29 | 12.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 30 | 13.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Nov 2 | 14.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Nov 3 | 7.00 % | −7.00 pts |
| Nov 4 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Nov 4latest | 9.00 % | +2.00 pts |
Lately
The European Commission's enlargement report has split Ukraine from Moldova, the country it applied alongside: Moldova can finish talks a year earlier. The report blames Kyiv's sputtering anti-corruption effort, so courts and graft bodies, not the front line, now set Ukraine's pace. Nothing in the input explains the mid-October peak.