Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 14, 2026?
27 %
-41.30% day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Ukraine strikes Moscow on one named day. Its price is what traders will pay for that outcome, and it moves with the tempo of the long-range drone war and with any talk of a strike truce.
Oct 7 · 27.00 % · −44.9% vs the window’s open
the numbers5
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | 49.00 % | |
| Oct 5high | 51.00 % | +4.1% |
| Oct 6 | 50.00 % | −2.0% |
| Oct 7 | 46.00 % | −8.0% |
| Oct 7latest | 27.00 % | −41.3% |
Lately
Bets on a repeat followed the overnight attack that Moscow's mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, put at 650 drones, which killed two people and set a warehouse on fire. It came days after Zelenskyy offered trilateral talks and India discussed non-attack steps with both sides; nothing reported accounts for the fall that followed.