Ukraine targets Moscow on Oct 19, 2026?
91 %
+16 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Ukraine strikes Moscow on Oct 19, 2026. Its price is what traders will pay for that outcome, a daily read on how far Kyiv's long-range drone campaign reaches into the Russian capital.
Oct 18 · 91.00 % · +41.0 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers15
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | 50.00 % | |
| Oct 5 | 51.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 6 | 49.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 7 | 48.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 8 | 48.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 9 | 50.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 10 | 35.00 % | −15.0 pts |
| Oct 11low | 34.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 34.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 13 | 48.00 % | +14.0 pts |
| Oct 14 | 47.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 15 | 68.00 % | +21.0 pts |
| Oct 16 | 68.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 17 | 75.00 % | +7.00 pts |
| Oct 18latest | 91.00 % | +16.0 pts |
Lately
Kyiv paused refinery strikes for 2 days, and Zelenskyy said Russia ignored the pause. The bets then climbed. Moscow's mayor said 2,730 Ukrainian drones flew toward the city in a week, and Russia says it downed 1,015 overnight as drones hit a St Petersburg oil terminal.