BangkokIMF sees Kuwait shrinking 16.7% as world grows 3.1%.
Only the Middle East and North Africa is forecast to contract in 2026, by 2%.
The fund assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens only in March 2027, stranding Gulf exporters’ crude until then.
“The economy has been resilient, but that resilience is reaching its limits,” said IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro.
The IMF’s baseline has pre-war shipping conditions returning only in October 2027.
How each outlet framed it
drawn from 300+ reports worldwide
- BBC
- foregrounds UK's projected lowest G7 borrowing and frames the Budget as a test of market credibility
- Economic Times
- credits AI infrastructure investment as the offset to Middle East energy shock, with a stock-market ticker embedded mid-article
- TRT World
- ties China's cut to weaker import demand for oil and metals, showing the spillover to global commodity markets
- The National leans critical
- reports the Gulf-only contraction (MENA -2%, only region shrinking) and the pushed-back Hormuz reopening forecast
Sources: BBC, Economic Times, TRT World, The National