Brent futures rose $10 in two weeks while physical barrels sank.

Brent futures, where billions of dollars of contracts trade daily, and physical prices have diverged.

Futures hit $110.11 on Thursday after the US ordered diplomats’ families out of Saudi Arabia, where Houthi strikes continue.

Polymarket traders give a Saudi-Houthi ceasefire by 31 December a 31% chance.

How each outlet framed it
Middle East Monitor
frames the Houthi threat through US embassy evacuation orders and attacks on civilian airports, not through Brent price moves
Bloomberg Business leans critical

Sources: Bloomberg Business, Middle East Monitor