Iran leadership change by September 30?
3 %
-25.00% day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Iran's leadership changes by a set date. It prices what traders will pay for that outcome rather than anyone's forecast, making it a live read on whether a bombing campaign is expected to topple the government it targets.
Sep 5 · 3.00 % · −50.0% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 6 | 6.00 % | |
| Aug 7 | 6.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 8high | 11.00 % | +83.3% |
| Aug 9 | 8.00 % | −27.3% |
| Aug 10 | 7.00 % | −12.5% |
| Aug 11 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 12 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 13 | 6.00 % | −14.3% |
| Aug 14 | 7.00 % | +16.7% |
| Aug 15 | 6.00 % | −14.3% |
| Aug 16 | 6.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 17 | 5.00 % | −16.7% |
| Aug 18 | 5.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 19 | 5.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 20 | 5.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 21 | 5.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 22 | 4.00 % | −20.0% |
| Aug 23 | 4.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 24low | 3.00 % | −25.0% |
| Aug 25 | 3.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 26 | 3.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 27 | 4.00 % | +33.3% |
| Aug 28 | 3.00 % | −25.0% |
| Aug 29 | 4.00 % | +33.3% |
| Aug 30 | 3.00 % | −25.0% |
| Aug 31 | 3.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 1 | 3.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 2 | 3.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 3 | 3.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 4 | 3.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 5 | 4.00 % | +33.3% |
| Sep 5latest | 3.00 % | −25.0% |
Lately
Traders stopped paying for a September change as the war settled into duration: the Pentagon signalled the 82nd Airborne could stay through 2027, Trump called the six-month campaign "small potatoes", and a leaked Russian missile programme, C430L, running since 2023, showed Tehran still being resupplied through sanctions.