Hormuz deal by Sept 30?
20 %
+0.00% day
A Polymarket contract paying out if Iran and its counterparties reach an agreement on Strait of Hormuz shipping by 30 September. The price is what traders will pay for that outcome, and it tracks how close the Gulf's mediation track is judged to be to a signature.
Sep 14 · 20.00 % · −64.3% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15 | 56.00 % | |
| Aug 16high | 61.00 % | +8.9% |
| Aug 17 | 61.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 18 | 60.00 % | −1.6% |
| Aug 19 | 59.00 % | −1.7% |
| Aug 20 | 54.00 % | −8.5% |
| Aug 21 | 39.00 % | −27.8% |
| Aug 22 | 39.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 23 | 36.00 % | −7.7% |
| Aug 24 | 39.00 % | +8.3% |
| Aug 25 | 40.00 % | +2.6% |
| Aug 26 | 45.00 % | +12.5% |
| Aug 27 | 59.00 % | +31.1% |
| Aug 28 | 37.00 % | −37.3% |
| Aug 29 | 38.00 % | +2.7% |
| Aug 30 | 36.00 % | −5.3% |
| Aug 31 | 30.00 % | −16.7% |
| Sep 1 | 26.00 % | −13.3% |
| Sep 2 | 24.00 % | −7.7% |
| Sep 3 | 19.00 % | −20.8% |
| Sep 4low | 14.00 % | −26.3% |
| Sep 5 | 19.00 % | +35.7% |
| Sep 6 | 19.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 7 | 25.00 % | +31.6% |
| Sep 8 | 31.00 % | +24.0% |
| Sep 9 | 26.00 % | −16.1% |
| Sep 10 | 27.00 % | +3.8% |
| Sep 11 | 27.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 12 | 39.00 % | +44.4% |
| Sep 13 | 42.00 % | +7.7% |
| Sep 14 | 20.00 % | −52.4% |
| Sep 14latest | 20.00 % | 0.0% |
Lately
The Muscat talks the contract rests on were shelved after a projectile killed a sailor off Qeshm Island, and Bahrain, which cut ties with Tehran a decade ago, left its chair empty. Iran is weighing transit fees rather than free passage, and Goudarzi called an NPT exit "readily attainable." Only the Abu Dhabi–Tehran channel still runs.