US-Iran ceasefire holds through Nov 8?
82 %
+7 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if the ceasefire between the United States and Iran survives to 8 November. Its price is what traders pay for that outcome, and it reacts to Gulf strikes and to talks through mediators.
Oct 29 · 82.00 % · +22.0 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers11
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | 60.00 % | |
| Oct 16 | 64.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 62.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 19 | 70.00 % | +8.00 pts |
| Oct 20 | 68.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 21 | 69.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 24low | 59.00 % | −10.0 pts |
| Oct 25 | 62.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 27 | 66.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Oct 28 | 75.00 % | +9.00 pts |
| Oct 29latest | 82.00 % | +7.00 pts |
Lately
Saudi Arabia's defence minister met Iran's president in Tehran, Khamenei backed Tehran's peace conditions, Qatar tabled a seven-day plan to end the war, and Vance wrote to Iran's security chief Rezaei. Against that, US officials warned Gulf states of strikes after 3 November, inside this contract's window.